Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 10.399204 11.623169 12.969216 14.565561 16.415055 18.499927 21.041338
2025-11-23 8.490817 10.034804 11.857087 14.187638 17.119467 20.726446 25.564194
2025-11-30 7.479707 9.176336 11.277012 14.108384 17.885975 22.842096 29.990173
2025-12-07 6.560194 8.274779 10.475296 13.562526 17.874478 23.828675 32.941148
2025-12-14 5.791531 7.468075 9.682472 12.891882 17.546904 24.256770 35.061425
2025-12-21 5.294540 6.966060 9.232861 12.619131 17.708611 25.352623 38.288198
2025-12-28 5.335009 7.193267 9.796042 13.832875 20.178143 30.223656 48.365530
2026-01-04 5.105248 7.012971 9.751992 14.125700 21.247470 33.008644 55.412774
2026-01-11 4.732654 6.593811 9.316935 13.764002 21.207314 33.916951 59.190837
2026-01-18 4.580503 6.486813 9.337707 14.117298 22.381813 37.069928 67.850633
2026-01-25 4.302232 6.168188 9.005391 13.858482 22.463789 38.244377 72.725927
2026-02-01 4.076660 5.914885 8.755352 13.710547 22.718134 39.762365 78.621178
2026-02-08 3.862358 5.673861 8.520550 13.590443 23.053157 41.571990 85.799047
2026-02-15 3.624926 5.382009 8.183490 13.263251 22.966121 42.529935 91.247243
2026-02-22 3.457454 5.191522 7.999242 13.189126 23.353008 44.525279 99.753985
2026-03-01 3.227631 4.885603 7.599920 12.687204 22.832672 44.478610 102.932642
2026-03-08 2.996344 4.565254 7.156965 12.069862 22.015035 43.659236 103.832996
2026-03-15 2.844576 4.369807 6.918092 11.818606 21.929513 44.503500 109.683440
2026-03-22 2.922244 4.564730 7.373119 12.935880 24.876837 53.011696 141.158429
2026-03-29 2.862850 4.520217 7.396679 13.205122 26.003447 57.267002 160.874309
2026-04-05 2.720950 4.324484 7.133139 12.872536 25.725958 57.845180 168.182425
2026-04-12 2.679059 4.302526 7.187881 13.197398 27.013368 62.840404 193.480428
2026-04-19 2.564922 4.146059 6.981906 12.959429 26.931984 64.034501 204.692529